The Curious Case of Darwin Nunez: The Impact of the Selling Market #1491 (late)

The transfer market has drastically changed over the years. There is currently a significant amount of inflation regarding the financial implications of buying and selling players. In football history, there comes a moment when it is realized things are about to change. Not always in the same way but abnormality becomes the norm. Whether or not people want to believe it, we have arrived in a transfer that will change the buying and selling market once again. The two classic examples Alan Shearer and Neymar. Alan Shearer had won the Premier League title with Blackburn Rovers in what was at the time crazy money. Alan Shearer eventually opted to go to his hometown club Newcastle United in what was at the time a world record 15 million transfer fee in 1996. No one had spent that kind of money before. The prices of transfers skyrocketed ever since his move. It wasn’t long before we saw transfers in the 40 million, 50 million 60 million range. It only skyrocketed from there. 50 million & 60 million deals became normal. Then we saw those like Cristiano Ronaldo go for 88 million, and Gareth Bale eventually reached triple digits when he moved to Real Madrid for 100 million. Then even that became somewhat normal. It was infrequent, but the top players occasionally go for that kind of money. However, the biggest impact to date happened when Neymar left Barcelona for 222 million. Changing the market and a completely different way. This transfer changed how a lot of clubs do business. Barcelona put a 222 million release clause in his contract. PSG paid it as Barcelona couldn’t stop it. The thought process was on Neymar’s Barcelona contract with no one’s ever going to pay that type of money for one player. Since then, especially in Spain, we have seen players have unpayable release Clauses in their contracts. Cristiano Ronaldo, when he was with Real Madrid, his release Clause with $1000000. Using others, especially among the Spanish Giants with 400+ Million in release clauses. All of this was happening because of the circumstances of Neymar leaving Barcelona for PSG due to his costly release Clause being paid. Mbappe went to PSG for 180 Million. Nothing has reached the price point of Neymar’s deal, but there have been players in recent years within the ballpark. It will probably be some time before someone breaks the transfer record. However, the implications of certain moves changed football history, especially from a financial and business standpoint. So the question is, why am I bringing all of this up? It is because we’ve arrived at another one of those moments, even if we don’t realize it yet. When Darwin Nunez moves to Liverpool, the market will change again. Darwin Nunez will move to Liverpool for 80 million + 20 million in bonuses as his deal will rise to 100 million. The most Liverpool has ever spent on one player. The implications of this deal will change business in the market for years to come. In The Curious Case of Darwin Nunez, the game changed again.

Nunez’s deal goes against how Klopp’s Liverpool has always done Business.

Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp has been a different monster. The heights he’s taken Liverpool are nothing short of spectacular. He had to sort out the team and rebuild it, quickly making them into a genuinely dominant side. Jurgen Klopp comes in and wins the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup. They have also been to three Champions League finals in the last five years, went to the Europa League final, and have been runner-up in the Premier League multiple times, on one occasion getting to 97 points and still not winning the league. The dominance has been incredible, but equally, even with all they have won years from now, we could see this era as a missed opportunity. Manchester City has won the Premier League title for four of the last five years. This year they went to three finals and didn’t score one goal. The comments Andrew Robertson made against Atletico Madrid sabotaged that Champions League run a few years back. Mohamed Salah’s comments against Real Madrid could have played a big part in Real Madrid winning the Champions League. Sadio Mane is leaving the club at the end of the season as he is already agreed to terms with Bayern Munich; the Bavarians still need to negotiate with Liverpool, which is an almost inevitable deal. Securing the services of Darwin Nunez was a move of desperation going against how Liverpool has conducted their business. The player is fantastic and is coming off a great season and could be an excellent signing for Liverpool, but it took Desperate Measures for them to do that. Historically speaking, under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool rarely spends big cash. Virgil Van Dijk (75M) and Alisson Becker (70M) is the exception to the rule. Looking at the team that was built, it was a lot of bargain deals. Bobby firmino signed for 27 million from Hoffenheim, and Mohamed Salah’s initial 36 million rose to 55. Sadio Mane 34 million, Andrew Robertson 8 million, Joel Matip for free, Thiago 20 million, and so on. With the identity of Liverpool and the way they’ve handled their business in the market, they very rarely spent big money on their squad. This goes against everything Liverpool has done in the Klopp era. Liverpool doesn’t conduct themselves this way; Man City has forced their hand, abandoning their belief system for Nunez. Man City securing erling haaland has put pressure on them, especially with sadio Mane departing. The deal for Darwin Nunez will cost 80 million + 20 million in bonuses; this fee will rise to 100 million. I appreciate the aggressiveness of this deal, and the price point of the transfer could also be down to the way Benfica wanted to bully its buyer. However, Liverpool allowed Benfica to bully them into a fee double his actual value Massive risk with the possibility of a high reward, but Liverpool doesn’t do this.

Massive Risk Liverpool had no choice: Taremi is the best player in Liga Portugal; Nunez with One great season.

Darwin Nunez was the top scorer in Portugal last season with 26 goals. In all competitions, he had 35 goals and four assists. A truly remarkable season for one of the best players in Portugal, especially in an attacking position. This last campaign, he was sensational, helping Benfica get to the quarter-finals of the Champions League and scoring against Liverpool in the process, showing his unbelievable quality. However, he wasn’t the best player in Portugal last season. Mehdi Taremi was second in the league in goals with 20 and had 13 assists. In all competitions, he had 26 goals and 17 assists; that’s 43 goal contributions last season. Mehdi Taremi, in three years at Porto, has made 110 goal contributions and has established himself as the best player in Portugal; he is proven to play at a top level consistently. The difference between Nunez and Taremi is clear, not just this season. I’m not suggesting that Liverpool should have purchased him; instead, Darwin Nunez is 26 Mehdi Taremi is 29. Darwin Nunez is a player ascending into his prime and has a bright future ahead of him. However, he’s only been producing for one season; Mehdi Taremi has been doing it for three. This is his second year at Benfica; in the previous campaign, he had six goals in the league and 14 in all competitions in 44 games. He has exploded since then but think about the money that’s being invested in Darwin Nunez. Three years ago, he had a 16-goal season; however, that was in the Spanish second division. He is only played two seasons in the top division. It has not been proven that he can perform at this level in back-to-back seasons; the sample size is still too small to know for a certainty. The season prior, he did well for a player coming into a new league but not enough to go off. Understandably, the market insulates any type of financial insanity in football. There’s an argument that we don’t need to criticize because it is the way it is; there’s nothing we can do about it, and honestly, this is partly on Benfica for requesting such a high transfer fee. I believe that they took advantage of Liverpool, who came across as desperate and vulnerable they probably would have lowered the price; if Liverpool weren’t willing to spend the amounts that they asked. As good as he could become at Anfield over the next couple of seasons, he could be precisely what it needed, but we don’t know. Liverpool spent 100 Million on a player with one breakout season. By that logic, then Tammy Abraham and Scammaca are worth that type of money, too, right? Think about all the other attackers in Europe and the consistency we had seen from them. Darwin Nunez hasn’t proven that yet; he’s being sold for 100 million without the validity of the evidence that he has in the top tier. The circumstances of this deal will change football and how business is done for Strikers. This gives all the leverage to the selling clubs; in the years to come, we could see so many taken advantage of. Darwin Nunez is worth approximately 45 million in actuality. Again I am not blaming Liverpool for their decision; they were forced into making paying this amount. What will they do sit here and watch Man City win the league another three years? They certainly have the money for it, so this doesn’t necessarily have long consequences, yet it still could if it doesn’t pan out, but their hands were tied. This is the most they ever spent on a player, but again they had to do it, didn’t they? Otherwise, they watch sadio Mane go to Munich and Erling haaland join Man City. Darwin Nunez brings goals. I reckon he could get between 15 to 20 goals if he’s able to perform the way he did last season, but that’s still an If.

A move like this put him in a very exclusive group. In terms of the most expensive players in transfer history, he is now near the top of the list; at least he will be after bonuses. If you look at the Players more expensive than him, whether the deal worked out or not, the status of which they existed before the move is vastly different from this situation.

Among some of the Players in Nunez price Bracket Below ( If the Deal reaches 100 Million after Bonus

Neymar: 222 Million from Barcalona to PSG

Whether or not you think he was worth the 222 million that PSG spent, he was the third-best player in the world at the time of the transfer. The first season he had 28 goals and 13 assists in February but got injured; he couldn’t play the rest of the season; it is possible he would have won Ballon d’Or had he not been hurt. When Neymar was healthy, he was one of the best players in the world; he led PSG to that Champions League final and was the best player on the night despite the results. Extremely high-profile going into that move.

Killian Mbappe: 180 Million From Monaco to PSG

Kylian Mbappé moved from Monaco to PSG for 183 million. The year before, he took Monaco to the league title over PSG and caught the World by storm. He scored in the round of 16 quarter-finals and semi-finals. He scored 26 goals and established himself as one of the best players in the world look at what he has done since then, individually and collectively 171 goals and 13 trophies.

Joao Felix: From Benfica to Athleti 126 Million

Felix was similar when he moved from Benfica to Athletico Madrid. He scored 20 goals and caught fire in the Europa League, establishing himself as one of the best young players in World football. A style of play Athletico Madrid does not favor his strengths, but when he is at his best, he’s special; he is a walking 20 and 10 in an attacking system; we don’t see this in the defensive team he is in. At that time, Felix was much more highly regarded than Darwin Nunez is now.

Jack Grealish: 117 Million From Aston Villa to Man City

Grealish went from Aston Villa to Manchester City last season. He struggled at Manchester City this season, but before that was absolutely everything to Aston Villa, one of the best players in the Premier League before the move.

Philippe Coutinho: 145 Million From Liverpool to Barcelona

Coutinho’s career had gone haywire since his move to Barcelona; it never panned out; however, before the transfer, he was one of the best Playmakers in the Premier League, won a couple of La Liga titles won the Champions League while on loan at Bayern Munich, and it seemed to rediscover himself at Aston Villa. Regardless of what happened since his move to Barcelona, he was a world-class player before that.

Antoine Griezmann: 120 Million From Athleti to Barcalona

Griezmann, again much like Philippe Coutinho, couldn’t live up to it after Athletico Madrid. However, before this move, he was one of the most antagonizing and difficult Strikers in World football. One of the best players in the world was top five in the Ballon d’Or, one of the best on the planet. His career has melted down but make no mistake Atleti Griezmann was different gravy.

All those players I mentioned had more body of work and were higher profile than Darwin Nunez is now. You can justify the price tag for all of them. I would put him in the Ousmane Dembele category; he had one of the greatest Bundesliga seasons and immediately went to Barcelona, where he failed to make the impact he expected. Darwin Nunez had an amazing season at Benfica, but he’s only operated at that level for one of them. You look up and down that list of the most expensive transfers in history; all of them could justify their price tag at that time. Nunez had one great season; it’s not certain or guaranteed that he can build on that and have a similar season at Liverpool next year. I hope he does great things. I’m a big fan of the player, and I think the addition will be a perfect fit but the price being put down on a player with one great season is a considerable risk. The market itself will change because of this. Here’s why this was an amazing season for him 34 goals last season for Benfica, but when you consider his body of work at this moment, he’s done nothing to suggest he’s worth this kind of money; he hasn’t done enough yet. This changes the selling Market because now teams that have a star player coming off a breakout season will be more expensive than ever before. Smaller clubs signing players will never be as difficult as it is now. Lorenzo Pellegrini for 10 Million, Marco Reus for 17 Million, or Andrew Robertson for 8 Million; these deals in the future won’t exist. If Benfica can get 100 million for one excellent season, everyone else would try to do the same. The impact this will have on the market in the next couple of years will be Insanity. The type of players that are likely to get 100 million transfers won’t make sense, as Vlahovic at 70 Million and Deligt at 75 Million will start to look like bargains.

Nunez Deal Skyrockets Lautaro Martínez

The underlying circumstances associated with Liverpool’s 100 million deal for Darwin Nunez will directly affect another Young Star Striker. There will be an incredible impact based on the amount spent on Darwin Nunez; the market has skyrocketed over these events. However, there’s one stock in particular that shot up in value. In my estimation, the stock of Lautaro Martínez has skyrocketed by at least 50 million and transfer value. Lautaro Martínez is one of the best strikers in Italian football at only 24 years of age. In 180 appearances for Inter Milan, he has 74 goals and 24 assists.Lautaro Martínez is substantially a better Striker than Darwin Nunez. He is one of the very best attackers in the world; for this latest transfer, he already would have been incredibly expensive. Lautaro Martínez is in a perfect situation with no real reason to depart Inter Milan. However, the player’s value now will probably be at an outrageous standard. In the past couple of years, he has been as consistent as any player in the league. He did it with Lukaku; without Lukaku, there are very few attackers in Italy that sit at the same table as him. He is a sensational talent, one of the best strikers in the world that will only get better and more dominant in the years to come. There is a numerous Strikers that have benefited from this deal but none more than Martinez. A few years ago, there was a rumor about Lautaro Martínez to Barcelona. At that time, they were talking about figures around 100 million. A price point of that magnitude at that time was utterly Justified considering what he had done with inter. Before the deal, his transfer value probably was around 125 million. Now that we’ve seen that Nunez secures this 100 million deal to Liverpool after one spectacular season, it just jacked up the price for Martinez. It would now probably cost between 170 and 190 million, maybe even 200 million. There are others that this deal will impact as well, but there is an enormous gap between Lautaro Martínez and Nunez. Inter Milan would require a transfer in that price range which will put most clubs out of the running if they were to be interested in securing the Argentine. You consider the numbers he has put up, the performances at Inter Milan, and the trophies he has won. Two things Inter Milan have all the leverage to hold on to him long-term; on top of that, if there comes a time when he departs, they’re likely going to require a fee in the range of 175 to 195 million Inter Milan wake up after this deal knowing that their player has tripled in value they’re not going to look to get rid of him if anything it’s probably secured Martinez long term while also knowing that they can now ask for an amount that could break barriers. If Darwin Nunez goes from Benfica to Liverpool for 100 million after one great season, Inter Milan can now ask for a fortune. Martinez has been consistently at the top of his game for over four seasons. I suspect he will stay long-term, but it also put Inter in a Prime position based on the Nunez deal. It will impact many other transfer deals of this nature; going forward, Martinez gets that huge gain from this because now, when it’s time to extend the contract, he’s now in a position to get Cristiano Ronaldo money. I suspect Nunez will knock it out of the park; considering his skill-set, he should be able to get the goals and be a vital piece of a Liverpool team that might close the gap between themselves and Manchester City. I feel he will be a special player in the Premier League, but again, we don’t know. This transfer changed the market.


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